A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
